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對vovt操盤手roxy的文章的理解

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一個偶然的機會,在論壇閒逛,得以一睹"索羅斯"兄貼的"An Interview with Roxy「,如獲至寶,收藏之餘,細細品味一周有餘。好東東大家分享,但由於語言上轉換有點麻煩,小弟才疏學淺,不敢班門造次。然,學之道,不進則退。面子雖然重要,為了得到大家批評指點,也顧不得了。
Roxy何許人也?

 

"《國際博彩經濟雜誌》-他是博彩業最具力量的25人之一;《GQ雜誌》-他是體育史上最重要的50人之一;《每日田徑報》-他是賭博業最具影響力的10人之一;拉斯維加斯最重要的人—《拉斯維加斯週報》集上述美譽於一身的邁克爾.羅克斯博羅可以稱得上是博彩業的最具傳奇色彩的風雲人物。 

世界體育博彩業開出的賠率為天下體育彩票迷參賭的標準,而體育彩票賠率又以他締造的羅克希賠率最具權威性,如英超賠率、意甲賠率、豐田杯賠率、女足世界盃賠率等,都是以羅克希賠率為第一參照物,因此,以賭為生的越級富豪也被人們稱為博彩業的"指南針"。

 

好,閒話不多說,將訪談中老前輩的一些話摘出來,並附上一些感想。如果翻譯上有問題,請拍磚指正,以免誤導,謝謝。

 

"We like to think it’s a little art and a little science. We blend computer technology with subjective analysis. We use
computers to do all our datakeeping."

初盤(初賠)的設定帶有藝術性和科學性。我們融合了計算機技術和操盤手的經驗。依靠計算機進行數據處理。

 

感:
art(藝術)是人為的,science(科學)是自然界的,前者需要感覺,需要靈感,需要推斷……後者需要數據,需要公式,需要模型……前者是活的,蛇眼可以知道怎麼去畫蝦,但打死也畫不過齊白石。後者是死的,一隻羊加一隻羊等於幾隻羊?蛇眼算出來是兩隻,愛因斯坦算出來肯定也是兩隻!
年紀大一點的人,打開電腦總覺得是一台電腦,年輕人倒更在乎程序。老前輩在這裡提到的computer technology(計算機技術),可能有這樣的意味。但後面緊接著談及的"use computers to do all our datakeeping",就不得不再想多一點點了。這裡我們可以知道,賠率設定時,science這方面的工作,必定形式很多樣,內容很廣泛,時間很持久,分工很複雜,看起來只好由電腦超人來完成了!"do datakeeping"?看來賠率的設定並非是一個簡單的重複過程,而是一項系統工程。系統學學得不好,記得不牢。隱約記得包含了動力、組件、控制(反饋)、產出等要素。放到這裡,賠率是一個產出;球隊的實力、主客場因素、關鍵球員的傷停、主場優勢、戰意、職業賭客傾向等等是組件;實際投注資金流向是反饋;而博彩公司的資源(這裡最主要的是操盤手的subjective analysis-綜合研判)則是這個系統的動力。
聽老前輩講的,覺得開賠率有點像天氣預報,至少,老前輩說與多年前相比,賠率是越來越準了,天氣預報也是這樣的。只不過,天氣預報裡,science的比重更大,而天氣本身又屬於science範疇,sports和betting都屬於社會學範疇,這個是有區別的。那麼賠率的設定,到底是art多一點點還是science多一點點呢?足球也好,棒球也好,畢竟不是地球公轉自轉!

 

Now we also have computerized power ratings for all the teams. We blend the computerized power ratings and the experience that our oddsmakers have.
所有的比賽我們都會計算詳盡的技術統計(實力對比),然後再將操盤手的經驗融合進來。
感:
技術統計得出的實力對比很重要,但只是問題的一部分。小米加步槍的神話是統計不出來的。

 

In pro football the computer power ratings are not that important.
在夠級別的職業聯賽裡,計算得出的實力對比並非想像中的那麼重要。

 

In the professional sports all the teams play in a closed universe; not only do they always have common opponents but they
keep playing each other numerous times and as a result I don’t think power ratings are that important.
在職業聯賽裡,所有的球隊共處一室,彼此之間相互熟悉,通常又會有一些小團體,所以我不覺得實力能說明多大的問題。

 

感:利益無處不在。短期利益,長期利益?小利益,大利益?表面利益,背後利益?個體利益,集團利益?孰輕孰重,何去何從?你能瞭解嗎?你又能瞭解多少??

Things like injuries, home-field or home-court advantage, and weather are some of the ingredients that go into the recipe,
but they are certainly overshadowed by talent. Talent is the most important ingredient.
傷停、主場優勢、天氣等是除實力外影響賽果的因素,但它們通常會被球隊的實力所掩蓋。球隊的實力是一個最重要的因素。

 

感:老前輩舉了一些可以明說的東西,當然,也有一些不便明言的因素。"talent"可以認為是球隊的實力,但進一步地也可以說包含了球隊的魅力。"talent"是首要因素,砍刀的殺傷力總比水果刀要強的。而且它會掩蓋一些問題,主場的AC米蘭會被客場作戰的利沃搞掉嗎?從實力和戰意上考慮會掩蓋天氣的問題。大雨!!雪,會激發英雄豪情,而雨,總讓人不安!

 

The idea sometimes has been quoted that the oddsmaker’s goal is to split the money with the line so that equal amounts are
wagered on both sides of a bet because then bookmakers will use losing bets to pay the winners while keeping the vigorish as profit. The odds don’t necessarily agree with how we think the teams will perform. By and large, however, the two approaches become the same.
操盤手要做的是使兩邊的資金平衡,坐收無風險的水錢。賠率不必體現我們所判斷的比賽結果,而應該使資金平衡。
The odds that split the betting action on the game actually coincide with how the teams perform. However, we may be a little
slow to move on certain trends because we follow the betting public rather than the teams’ performance. If the betting
doesn’t follow a new trend, then we may not change. I’ll give you an example: If everybody is betting on the San Francisco
49ers but the San Francisco 49ers never cover the point spread, then this is not necessarily going to change the way we
handicap the game. We don’t look at just the results; we like to handicap games by looking at the results for about 50% of
our information and the betting patterns for about 50% of it.
賠率、受注情況和賽果是關聯的。賠率的變動取決於受注資金的流向而不是我們把握的賽果,我們必須謹慎而緩慢地根據資金流向去變動水位,從而影響資金的流向。如果投注額沒有明顯流向贏的一方,那麼我們也沒有必要去變動水位(賠率)。比如每個人都去下舊金山48人隊而實際上它贏不了,我們可不會去變盤或者調動水位。我們並不只是盯著賽果,我們設定讓球的時候,一半取決於賽果,一半取決於受注情況。

 

感:正應了一句話了,色即是空!

The reason you want to incorporate what professional bettors are doing into your line-making process is because, if they ever discover a form of betting "Holy Grail," perhaps some master computer program, then whatever they are getting from their
statistical analysis is going to show up in your line. So the door will be closed on them eventually. That’s why there is no
such thing as the Holy Grail for beating professional sports; not only are sports volatile and changing all the time but
oddsmakers are incorporating what the serious money is doing into our analysis, so even if we don’t know why they like a team or they don’t like a team, it’s going to end up in our ratings.

操盤總是在跟職業賭客對著幹,因為某些超級牛X會找到一些公式而來"殺莊",那麼,不管他們是怎麼分析出來的,總是操盤手法上出了破綻。
這個時候,超級牛X們很快也沒戲了。世上並不存在必贏絕技之類的東西,不僅因為世上沒有相同的比賽,而且操盤手也會從受注資金上找到問題並立即解決,必贏絕技也就掛歇了。

 

感:沒有人能告訴你如何看盤,因為你們共同的對手比你先知道,等你知道了,領會了,一切已經結束了。你能看到的,都是假的,只有你不知道的才是真的。

 

The things we are talking about now are called situational analysis, and what that means is that the situation can be more
important than the talent. It happens mostly in professional basketball and often revolves around travel because the travel
schedule is so brutal in professional basketball that it can actually equalize the talent. So if we have an idea or we have a
theory about something that may be affecting how the game is played, we’ll go and take a look at it. We might need to make an adjustment or we might not.
這就是所謂的狀態分析,狀態有時候比實力更重要。比如,密集的賽事就會影響球隊的狀態。所有影響賽果的因素我們總要去研究的。這並不一定會影響我們的開盤,職業賭客也看到了的話,那我們得花點心思算計算計了。

 

感:也許賠率包含了一切信息,也許並沒有什麼信息,總之,賠率開來開去,你總覺得基本上跟你想的是一樣的。

 

Results are so random in sports that you can never look at a result and say it must be fixed.
體育賽事裡結果總是帶有一些隨機因素的,你永遠也不能保證"這就是鐵膽!"

 

感:什麼時候把簡單的搞複雜一點,什麼時候把複雜的搞簡單一點?
搞了半天,實力對比不可信,賠率也不可信,我靠!那信什麼?!"a little art and a little science",你是否看到老前輩得意而狡黠的眼神了呢?

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